Analysis of economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for January–May 2024 from Experts Club

The article compiles and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protecting the Interests of Business Entities During Martial Law or a State of War,” the State Statistics Service of Ukraine is suspending the publication of statistical information for the duration of martial law and for three months after its end. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and analytical centers.
Maksym Urakin, Candidate of Economic Sciences, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and director of development and commerce at Interfax-Ukraine, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.

Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the center's founder Maksym Urakin, gross domestic product growth in May 2024 compared with May of last year was about 3.7%.
“This figure is lower than the April and March levels, which were 4.3% and 4.6% respectively, mainly due to a drop in electricity generation. At the same time, the positive change in GDP is linked to exports and demand in the construction sector, as well as a revival in metallurgy and mechanical engineering,” noted Urakin.
Also, according to Urakin, Ukraine's total public debt, after reaching a new all-time high in April, fell by $0.53 billion (0.3%) in May to $150.99 billion. Inflation in Ukraine rose in May to 0.6% from 0.2% in April in annual terms, which is generally within the NBU's target range.

The global economy
Maksym Urakin cited data from the World Bank (WB) forecast, according to which global economic growth in 2024 is projected at 2.6% (an earlier forecast assumed growth of 2.4%), and in 2025–2026 at up to 2.7%.
“In emerging economies, average annual GDP growth in 2024–2025 is expected at 4%, slightly below last year's figure. Growth in low-income countries will accelerate to 5% in 2024 from 3.8% in 2023. At the same time, advanced economies are forecast to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” the expert stressed.
He also added that the growth prospects of the world's poorest countries remain mixed.
“They face a heavy debt burden, reduced trade opportunities, and other factors that negatively affect their economies. These countries need to find ways to stimulate private investment, reduce public debt, and improve education, health care, and basic infrastructure,” Urakin notes.
According to the founder of Experts Club, although food and energy prices have fallen in all regions of the world, core inflation will remain high in both the medium and the long term.