Economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for January–October 2024
Ukraine's economy shows stable but uneven growth amid continuing challenges caused by the war, inflation risks, and global instability. GDP growth According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine's real GDP for January–October 2024 increased by 3.1% year on year. The pace of growth slowed somewhat compared with the first months of the year, owing to the influence of external economic factors and a decline in
Ukraine's economy shows stable but uneven growth amid continuing challenges caused by the war, inflation risks, and global instability.
GDP growth
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine's real GDP for January–October 2024 increased by 3.1% year on year. The pace of growth slowed somewhat compared with the first months of the year, owing to the influence of external economic factors and a decline in export supplies.
“The Ukrainian economy shows strength and adaptability even amid large-scale challenges. However, for sustainable development it is necessary to continue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate and supporting exports,” noted Experts Club founder Maksym Urakin.
Inflation
Inflation continues to be one of the key problems. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, annual inflation in October was 9.1%, accelerating from 8.5% in September. The main factors behind rising prices were more expensive energy, a weaker hryvnia, and high logistics costs.
“Inflation puts pressure on the consumer purchasing power of the population. It is important that the authorities pay more attention to tools for restraining price growth, including support for national production and development of the domestic market,” Urakin emphasized.
Foreign trade
The negative balance of Ukraine's foreign trade in goods over ten months increased by 6.4% compared with the same period last year and amounted to $22.1 billion. Exports fell by 4.8%, especially in agricultural products and metallurgy, while imports rose by 3.2%, mainly due to purchases of fuel and industrial equipment.
“Ukraine needs to develop export channels more actively, diversify sales markets, and support producers. This will help balance the trade deficit and strengthen positions in international markets,” Urakin added.
State budget and reserves
State budget revenues for January–October amounted to UAH 1.91 trillion, which is 12% higher than in the same period of 2023. However, a significant part of the receipts was provided by international financial aid. Ukraine's international reserves fell by 6.7% in October, to $37.2 billion, owing to the repayment of external obligations and a decline in foreign currency inflows.
The global economic situation
The global economy continues to face uncertainty caused by high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and the weakening of key economies.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024, which is in line with forecasts but below the average of recent decades.
USA – the economy grew by 2.5%, supported by high domestic consumption and investment.
Eurozone – growth was 0.8%, owing to the recession in Germany and the slowdown in industrial production.
China – GDP increased by 4.6%, but the economy faces problems in real estate and a decline in exports.
India – remains one of the growth leaders, showing 6.9% economic expansion.
“The global economy is balancing between recovery and new challenges. In the coming months, the main risks will remain geopolitical instability, fluctuations in energy prices, and financial constraints due to high interest rates,” Urakin noted.
Global trends:
1. Financial markets remain volatile, as the central banks of leading countries are in no hurry to cut rates.
2. the energy crisis in Europe continues to put pressure on the economy.
3. Rising prices for raw materials, including oil and gas, are affecting inflationary processes around the world.
Ukraine's economy over the first ten months of 2024 shows moderate growth, but faces challenges in the form of inflation, trade imbalance, and pressure on the state budget. In the global economy, risks remain related to the high cost of borrowed funds and the slowing growth of key countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue reforms aimed at supporting business and attracting investment. Only in this way can we ensure long-term economic stability and create a solid foundation for future growth,” Maksym Urakin summed up.