The economy of Ukraine and the world: analysis from Experts Club
The founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin, shared his observations on the key indicators and risks for the economies of Ukraine and the world as of November 2024. The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine According to Maksym Urakin, Ukraine's economy continues to show slow growth. “According to the National Bank, in October 2024 Ukraine's GDP grew by 1.3% compared
The founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin, shared his observations on the key indicators and risks for the economies of Ukraine and the world as of November 2024.
The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
According to Maksym Urakin, Ukraine's economy continues to show slow growth.
“According to the National Bank, in October 2024 Ukraine's GDP grew by 1.3% compared with October of last year. That is worse than the September figures but noticeably better than the data for the summer months. However, negative trends are observed in agriculture. This year's harvest turned out to be significantly lower than last year's, which hit the agricultural sector, one of the key drivers of the economy,” Maksym Urakin noted.
The expert also pointed to a sharp deterioration in the foreign trade balance.
“The foreign trade deficit in goods over nine months increased by almost 6%, reaching a frightening mark of 20 billion dollars. The main reasons were the growth of energy imports and a shortage of labor at export-oriented enterprises,” Urakin added.
According to the expert, Ukraine's public debt is also a cause for great alarm.
“As of October 2024, the debt already stands at 6.4 trillion hryvnias, or about 155 billion dollars. At the same time, international reserves have decreased by more than 2 billion dollars and amount to 36 billion,” Urakin emphasized.
The global economy: challenges and prospects
At the global level, the key risks are linked to the growing debt burden.
“The global volume of public debt already exceeds 100 trillion dollars, which is 93% of world GDP. In the coming years this figure will continue to grow, putting additional pressure on the budgets of most countries,” Urakin noted.
The economies of developed countries, in the expert's opinion, show uneven dynamics. The United States shows confident growth, with its GDP up almost 3% in the third quarter. At the same time, the eurozone economy is effectively stagnating, and Germany has faced zero growth altogether, the economist said.
At the same time, China continues to play a key role in the global economy. “In the third quarter the PRC showed GDP growth that remained at 5%, but the pace slowed due to geopolitical tension and internal problems, in particular in the construction sector,” Maksym Urakin noted.
Looking to the future
Maksym Urakin expressed cautious optimism about the long-term prospects.
“The world economy is facing many challenges, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts and protectionism. However, despite all the difficulties, there is reason to believe that growth, at least within moderate limits, will continue,” he summed up.
The expert also called for more active international coordination to overcome economic challenges.
“Stability requires joint efforts, and only through dialogue and cooperation will we be able to minimize the risks,” Maksym Urakin summed up.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy from the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
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