Experts Club presents a ranking of countries most likely to default
In its new video on the YouTube platform, the Kyiv information and analytical center Experts Club published a ranking of the countries with the highest probability of sovereign default. In compiling the ranking, both economic and political factors that can lead states to default were considered. As the founder of Experts Club, candidate of economic sciences Maksym Urakin, noted, the current economic situation in the world is alarming. “The world
In its new video on the YouTube platform, the Kyiv information and analytical center Experts Club published a ranking of the countries with the highest probability of sovereign default. In compiling the ranking, both economic and political factors that can lead states to default were considered.
As the founder of Experts Club, candidate of economic sciences Maksym Urakin, noted, the current economic situation in the world is alarming.
“The world economy is facing unprecedented challenges, and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. In such conditions it is extremely important to understand which states are most at risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he stressed.
A sovereign default is a situation in which a country cannot meet its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maksym Urakin, a default can have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its citizens.
“A default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we monitor the economic situation in different countries so closely,” Urakin added.
In the Experts Club ranking for 2024, the countries with the highest probability of default include Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and several other states that have already faced serious economic problems. These countries are characterized by a high level of external debt, economic instability and political crises.
Experts Club also singled out several countries at risk in the medium term. Among them are Argentina and Venezuela, which have already faced economic instability and a high level of debt, as well as Greece and Italy, which depend on external creditors.
| Experts Club ranking | Country | Current international rating |
| 1. | Argentina | CCC- |
| 2. | Ghana | in default |
| 3. | Sri Lanka | in default |
| 4. | Lebanon | in default |
| 5. | Zambia | in default |
| 6. | Pakistan | CCC |
| 7. | Mozambique | CCC |
| 8. | Ukraine | CCC |
| 9. | Ethiopia | CCC |
| 10. | Cameroon | CCC+ |
| 11. | Bolivia | CCC+ |
| 12. | Burkina Faso | CCC+ |
| 13. | Suriname | in default |
| 14. | Tunisia | CCC |
| 15. | Egypt | B- |
| 16. | Nigeria | B- |
| 17. | El Salvador | B- |
| 18. | Honduras | B- |
| 19. | Laos | B- |
| 20. | Venezuela | in default |
“We see that countries such as Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the brink of default due to domestic economic instability and external pressure. The situation in Greece and Italy, which depend heavily on international loans, is also a cause for concern. In these countries, the risk of default remains high,” Urakin commented.
Particular attention this year is paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is “in a state of political and economic crisis, with an extremely high debt-to-GDP ratio.” This makes the country especially vulnerable in the face of a possible default.
Maksym Urakin also elaborated on the factors that can lead to default. Among them, he singled out a high level of external debt relative to GDP, economic instability, and dependence on external financing.
“Countries whose debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 100% are especially vulnerable. Examples include Lebanon, Cyprus, and Greece. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.
Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.
“Countries that rely on external loans to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, may face difficulties if conditions on international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.
In his comment on the ranking, Maksym Urakin noted that the consequences of default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.
“For government bodies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, a lower credit rating, and the need for painful economic reforms. For citizens, it translates into inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment, and a lower standard of living,” the expert explained.
Urakin also stressed that default can lead to growing social discontent and political instability, which may worsen the situation in the country. He also assured that Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the global economic situation and provide up-to-date data in a timely manner to help countries and investors minimize risks and avoid defaults.
You can find out more about defaults and the ranking presented in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel:
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