Experts club analyzed macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world in the first quarter of this year

The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On the protection of the interests of business entities during the period of martial law or a state of war”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine is suspending the publication of statistical information for the duration of martial law and for three months after its end. An exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, certain information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January–February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank and analytical centers.
Candidate of economic sciences Maksym Urakin presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF and the World Bank.

Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maksym Urakin cited data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared with 2022, and the forecast for 2024.
“The baseline scenario of the NBU's macroeconomic forecast envisages the continuation of a balanced monetary and fiscal policy aimed at maintaining macro-financial stability. Ukraine is also expected to fulfill its obligations under cooperation programs with international partners, who will continue to provide sufficient financial support. The forecast envisages a substantial reduction in security risks starting in 2025, which will make it possible to unblock the seaports, expand opportunities for investment and business activity, and facilitate the return of forced migrants to Ukraine,” Urakin stressed.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“Risks such as additional budgetary needs, in particular to maintain defense capability and eliminate the consequences of destruction, as well as significant shortages, in particular in the energy sector, remain relevant. Substantial damage to port and energy infrastructure will limit exports, and the continued partial blockade of borders with certain EU countries for freight transport will restrict both imports and exports. Among the risks, it is also worth noting the deepening of negative migration trends,” the economist noted.
The pace of international aid to Ukraine, according to the expert, fell significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, which may negatively affect the recovery of the economy this year amid the war.

Prospects for the global economy
Maksym Urakin also analyzed the world economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“An analysis of the dynamics of global GDP shows that the world economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maksym Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. In this context, Ukraine needs to focus on strengthening internal political stability, restoring its economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the world stage,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. As for Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war and to manage public debt.

Earlier, the analytical center Experts Club released a video on how countries' GDP has changed in recent years; a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=HO-KT2UC8pYdUwCH