The official hryvnia rate weakened by a further 7 kopiykas on Tuesday
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after lowering the official hryvnia rate by 12 kopiykas on Monday, lowered it by a further 7 kopiykas on Tuesday, to 41.5035 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator's website. “Ukraine's foreign exchange market remains under pressure from psychological factors, although fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not yet give grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after lowering the official hryvnia rate by 12 kopiykas on Monday, lowered it by a further 7 kopiykas on Tuesday, to 41.5035 UAH/$1, according to data on the regulator's website.
“Ukraine's foreign exchange market remains under pressure from psychological factors, although fundamental macroeconomic indicators do not yet give grounds for strong devaluation pressure and abrupt changes in exchange rates,” state, in a review and forecast of the foreign exchange market, analysts at KIT Group.
At the same time, they expect a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia going forward. In particular, according to KIT Group's forecast, the official exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar will remain within 41-42 UAH/$1 until the end of November, provided that the current state of the macroeconomy and the security situation is maintained.
By the end of this year, analysts forecast the hryvnia weakening to 43 UAH/$1; the reason for this, in their words, may be seasonal demand for foreign currency.
The National Bank set the reference rate for 12:00 that day at 41.4815 UAH/$1, compared with 41.4087 UAH/$1 the day before.
The US dollar on the cash market rose by 8 kopiykas on Tuesday, both when buying and when selling, to 41.68 UAH/$1 and 41.75 UAH/$1, respectively.
Since the beginning of 2024, the dollar at the official rate has risen in price by 9.2%, or 3.50 UAH, and since the National Bank's transition to the managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023, by 13.5%, or 4.93 UAH.
The average annual rate of 45 UAH/$1 included in the 2025 state budget KIT Group analysts regard as realistic, noting that it implies exchange rate fluctuations in the range of 44-46 UAH/$1.
Ukraine's international reserves in October, according to the NBU's preliminary estimates, decreased by 6%, or $2.32 billion, to $36 billion 578 million, while net international reserves (NIR) fell by $3.11 billion, or 12.2%, to $22 billion 437 million.