The war in Iran will push up prices of many goods – analysis by Experts Club

“If the conflict around Iran drags on, Ukraine will feel it almost immediately through higher fuel costs, and then through more expensive logistics, imports and some foodstuffs. For our economy this is not only an external shock but also additional inflationary pressure on the domestic market,” says Maksym Urakin, founder of the analytical center Experts Club and PhD in economics.

The second vulnerable group is imported products with long logistics chains and a high share of transport costs. In 2025 Ukraine increased its agri-food imports by 13%, to $9.12 billion, with the EU’s share exceeding 53.9%. In the structure of purchases, the largest items were fruit, berries and nuts at $1 billion, fish and seafood at $999 million, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages at $870 million, cocoa products at $640 million, coffee, tea and spices at $471 million, and vegetables at $467 million. It is precisely these categories – from bananas and citrus fruit to coffee, chocolate and seafood – that are most sensitive to more expensive freight, fuel, cold-chain logistics and dollar-denominated commodity prices.

“Consumers will notice the price rises most where the share of imports and of the transport component is large. First of all this concerns fuel, coffee, chocolate, fish, seafood and fruit, and a little later goods whose prices incorporate more expensive fertilizers, gas and packaging,” Urakin noted.

The third risk zone is fertilizers and then food produced in Ukraine. Rising prices are already being recorded not only for oil and gas but also for sugar, fertilizers and soybeans after the escalation around Iran. At the same time, European gas prices jumped by 35–40% in early March, and the EU convened a coordination group on gas supplies. This is felt doubly in Ukraine: the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) had earlier estimated the need for gas imports in 2026 at $1.1 billion, after $2.9 billion in 2025, and fertilizer imports in 2025 rose to 3.285 million tonnes.

According to GIZ estimates, Ukraine’s dependence on imports of nitrogen fertilizers has already exceeded 60%. This means that if high oil and gas prices persist for long, in a few months the pressure could shift to the production cost of grain, greenhouse vegetables, milk, meat and other foodstuffs.

Goods linked to petrochemicals and metals deserve separate mention. Oil is the basic raw material for a wide range of chemical products, and Reuters, against the backdrop of the current conflict, has already noted aluminium prices rising to a four-year high. This raises the risk of higher prices for plastic packaging, household chemicals, paints, certain kinds of cosmetics, tires, PVC materials and some construction goods. The same applies to bitumen – a direct petroleum product whose imports into Ukraine, according to industry estimates, remain substantial in 2026 as well.

The currency factor could become an additional amplifier. Against the backdrop of war, investors are moving into the dollar as a safe-haven asset. This matters for Ukraine because oil, gas, coffee, cocoa, fertilizers and a significant part of other imports are denominated precisely in dollars, while the EU remains the country’s largest trading partner, with a share of more than 50% in trade in goods. Even without a physical shortage, this raises the risk of more expensive imports in hryvnia terms.

At the same time, not all goods will react equally quickly. Basic products where Ukraine remains a major producer – above all wheat, corn and sunflower oil – depend less on immediate imports, and the 2025 wheat and corn harvest turned out better than early expectations.

Therefore, in the short term the biggest price rises may come in fuel, imported fruit and seafood, coffee and chocolate, fertilizers, chemicals and some construction materials. But if the energy shock drags on, rising logistics costs will almost inevitably begin to seep into the prices of goods produced in Ukraine as well.

Source: https://expertsclub.eu/vijna-v-irani-pidnime-cziny-na-palyvo-ta-import-analiz-tovariv/