The economy of Ukraine and the world as of February 2025: an analysis by Experts Club
February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economy. Geopolitical tension, inflationary pressure, and global shifts in trade flows continue to affect economic development. The founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, candidate of economic sciences Maksym Urakin, noted that Ukraine is seeing trends of gradual economic recovery despite difficult internal and
February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economy. Geopolitical tension, inflationary pressure, and global shifts in trade flows continue to affect economic development. The founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, candidate of economic sciences Maksym Urakin, noted that Ukraine is seeing trends of gradual economic recovery despite difficult internal and external conditions.
Ukraine's economy in February 2025
According to the National Bank, real GDP growth in January 2025 was 3.4% compared with the same period of 2024. The main drivers of growth were:
- Agriculture: the recovery of exports and the expansion of sales markets provided growth of 6.5%.
- IT sector: IT services remain a key source of foreign currency earnings, showing growth of 10.4%.
- Construction: thanks to large-scale investment in infrastructure and international support, the sector grew by 4.2%.
“Against the backdrop of the ongoing war and global upheavals, Ukraine's economy shows both signs of recovery and certain problems that require attention,” said Experts Club founder Maksym Urakin.
In January 2025, annual inflation was 12.9%, higher than the 2024 figure (12%). This is due to rising prices for food and energy. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate remains relatively stable, fluctuating within 39-40 UAH per dollar, thanks to the support of international partners and export revenues.
“Lower inflation is a positive signal for the economy, but raising the level of household incomes remains an important task in order to offset the impact of past inflationary shocks,” Urakin emphasized.
Ukraine's exports in January 2025 rose to $3.1 billion, thanks to supplies of products and metals. However, imports also increased, mainly due to energy resources and equipment. The negative foreign trade balance persists.
“The dynamics of exports show that Ukrainian companies are actively seeking new markets. Strengthening competitiveness and improving logistics could be the key to reducing the trade deficit,” Urakin noted.
Ukraine's state budget revenues in January 2025 amounted to UAH 282.8 billion, including UAH 128.2 billion for the general fund, which is 83.4% and 10.5% more, respectively, than in January 2024. The main role was played by receipts from VAT and excise taxes, as well as international aid. Ukraine's international reserves increased to $40.1 billion, one of the highest figures in recent years.
“Financial support from international partners remains an important factor in macroeconomic stability. But it is important to lay the foundation for the economy's self-sustained growth right now,” Urakin emphasized.
The global economic situation in February 2025
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, slightly below the 2024 level (3%). The main reasons for the slowdown remain the high cost of borrowing, uncertainty in financial markets, and declining global demand.
USA: The economy shows moderate growth of 2.3%, thanks to resilient domestic demand and investment in innovative sectors.
European Union: Growth rates remain low, at 1.1%, because of the protracted energy crisis and problems in industry.
China: Growth slowed to 4.5%, owing to the crisis in the real estate sector and a reduction in export supplies.
India: Consistently shows growth of 6.8%, remaining one of the most dynamically developing economies.
“The global economy is in a state of fragile balance. The main risks are linked to geopolitical instability and high interest rates. However, countries with diversified economies cope better with these challenges,” Urakin noted.
Oil: Oil prices in February 2025 are around $83 per barrel, having stabilized after the spikes of late 2024.
Gas: The European market continues to face pressure, with the average gas price at €67 per MWh, owing to a supply shortage that persists.
Metals: Demand for steel and aluminum has declined, putting pressure on the export opportunities of developing countries.
The central banks of the largest economies are keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve System is holding its rate at 5.5%, which limits access to cheap capital but helps bring inflation down.
Ukraine's economy in February 2025 shows signs of stability and growth, but risks remain related to inflation, the foreign trade deficit, and dependence on international aid. The global economy is seeing a slowdown in growth rates, which creates additional challenges for countries with emerging markets.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue attracting foreign investment, developing its export potential, and strengthening the domestic market. Only systemic reforms and integration into the global economy will allow us to overcome current difficulties and create a basis for long-term growth,” Maksym Urakin summed up.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy from the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0sE3ymMnQ
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