AI, data centres and electrification are reshaping the global copper market: a deficit of 3.6 million tonnes is possible by 2035

The global economy depends more and more on copper. The development of artificial intelligence, the construction of data centres, the modernisation of power grids and the spread of electric vehicles and renewable energy are increasing the need for the metal without which modern electrical infrastructure is impossible. At the same time, production growth may not keep pace with demand.

According to a forecast by the international consulting company McKinsey & Company published in June 2025, the global market for refined copper could face an annual deficit of about 3.6 million tonnes in 2035.

Demand will grow faster than supply

McKinsey analysts forecast that global consumption of refined copper will rise from 29.5 million tonnes in 2025 to 37.3 million tonnes in 2035. That is growth of about 26% over the decade.

Meanwhile, global supply in the base-case scenario will be only 33.7 million tonnes.

The causes of the potential shortfall are the limited pace at which new deposits are brought into operation, falling output at some existing mines, rising extraction costs and insufficient capacity for processing scrap metal.

What does artificial intelligence have to do with it?

AI needs not only powerful processors, servers and software, but also large-scale physical infrastructure.

Modern data centres require power supply systems, cable networks, transformers, distribution equipment and cooling. Copper is used in many components because of its high electrical and thermal conductivity.

The International Energy Agency reported in April 2026 that global electricity consumption by data centres in 2025 was about 485 TWh. By 2030 this figure, according to the agency's central forecast, could rise to 950 TWh.

Electricity consumption by data centres focused directly on AI grew by 50% in 2025.

This means that the development of artificial intelligence stimulates demand not only for semiconductors but also for materials to build and modernise energy infrastructure.

However, AI is only one of the factors behind growing demand for copper. The electrification of transport, industrial development, the modernisation of power grids and renewable energy play a significant role.

New forecasts confirm the risk

In July 2026 the International Energy Agency published the report Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.

According to the agency's estimate, expected copper output from existing and planned projects in 2035 could be about 25% lower than the projected need for primary supply of the metal.

This is a separate forecast with a different methodology, but it confirms the systemic risk of an insufficiently developed raw-materials base.

Will copper recycling help?

One possible solution is to increase the use of secondary raw materials.

According to McKinsey, the supply of copper from recycled products could rise from 5.6 million tonnes in 2025 to 8.9 million tonnes in 2035.

However, even this does not guarantee that demand will be fully met. The industry needs investment in collecting, sorting, cleaning and remelting scrap metal.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

For Ukraine, these trends matter in the context of post-war reconstruction.

Rebuilding power grids, building housing, and developing industry, decentralised energy and digital infrastructure will require large volumes of electrical products, in particular copper conductors.

Potential tension on the global market means it is necessary to plan purchases in advance, diversify suppliers and develop technologies for reusing materials.

Digital transformation is not only about data centres

Artificial intelligence is changing not only the demand for raw materials but also the day-to-day work of companies: from document processing to communicating with customers. In Ukraine such solutions are increasingly being adopted by small and medium-sized businesses, including veteran-owned ones.

The Veterans Cluster of Ukraine, together with SmartGT and PATProfi, with the support of the Veterans Institute “Architecture of Resilience” at KNUCA, has launched the AI Incubator. It is a 12-week programme for companies: an audit of business processes, development and testing of an AI solution on real data, team training and launch into operation. The programme is designed for law, accounting and construction companies and for veteran-owned businesses. Special conditions apply to veteran-owned enterprises.

You can apply to introduce AI into your business at veterano.info.

Main takeaway: digital transformation does not remove the economy's dependence on physical resources. On the contrary, the development of AI and electrification raises the strategic importance of raw materials, energy networks and industrial production capacity.

A copper deficit of 3.6 million tonnes is not an inevitable outcome but a scenario that may change depending on investment, technology, the pace of electrification and the development of recycling.