Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024: results, challenges and prospects

In 2024 Ukraine demonstrated growth in foreign trade, but problems remain that limit its opportunities on international markets. The lack of a sufficient number of enterprises with deep processing, complex logistics and the impact of global economic processes pose serious challenges for Ukrainian business.

The founder of the information and analytical centre Experts Club, Maksym Urakin, and the president of the Exporters Club of Ukraine, Yevhenia Lytvynova, analysed the trends of 2024 and assessed the prospects for development in 2025.

Trade balance: export growth, but a large deficit

According to the experts, Ukraine’s total foreign trade volume in 2024 reached $113 billion, which is 13% more than in 2023.

Key figures:

• Exports – $41 billion (+15%).
• Imports – $70 billion.
• Negative trade balance – $29 billion.

Despite the growth in export volumes, the main problem remains the significant trade balance deficit. This points to the economy’s dependence on imports, which puts additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate and calls for new solutions to increase exports of high value-added products.

“Despite the positive dynamics of exports, Ukraine still depends on imports, especially in technology and equipment. The negative balance remains a serious challenge for our economy,” said Yevhenia Lytvynova.

Main trading partners: Poland, Spain, Germany

Experts Club has compiled a list of Ukraine’s TOP-10 trading partners by exports:

1. Poland – $4.7 billion

2. Spain – $2.9 billion

3. Germany – $2.8 billion

4. China – $2.3 billion

5. Turkey – $2.1 billion

6. Netherlands – $1.98 billion

7. Italy – $1.93 billion

8. Egypt – $1.6 billion

9. India – $986 million

10. Moldova – $935 million

“In 2024 Spain unexpectedly ranked second among importers of Ukrainian products. This is partly due to the high demand for Ukrainian products linked to the migration of Ukrainians. However, it should be taken into account that a significant part of these exports is re-export via European countries,” explained Maksym Urakin.

Meanwhile, China traditionally leads Ukraine’s top 10 importers:

1. China – $14.4 billion

2. Poland – $7 billion

3. Germany – $5.4 billion

4. Turkey – $4.72 billion

5. US – $2.86 billion

6. Italy – $2.27 billion

7. Bulgaria – $2.22 billion

8. India – $1.88 billion

9. Czechia – $1.78 billion

10. France – $1.75 billion

Export structure: Ukraine remains a supplier of raw materials

The largest share of exports is made up of food products – about $25 billion. Metals (about $5 billion) and equipment ($4 billion) are also among the main goods.

“Ukraine continues to export mostly raw materials. This means that the main profit from processing and added value stays abroad. We need reforms that will allow us to develop domestic production and processing,” stressed Yevhenia Lytvynova.

Import structure: machinery, chemicals, fuel

In 2024 the largest import categories were machinery and equipment ($25 billion), chemical products ($11.7 billion) and energy carriers ($8.9 billion).

“The main share of imports is aimed at supporting business rather than the consumer market. This means that enterprises are actively upgrading production and importing equipment,” explained Maksym Urakin.

New markets: opportunities and obstacles

A number of Ukrainian companies plan to enter the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Asia more actively in 2025. In particular, the signing of a free trade area agreement with Turkey is expected, which will make that country an even more important trading partner.

“Turkey is already among Ukraine’s five main partners. If the free trade agreement is ratified, we will see even greater growth in trade turnover,” stressed Yevhenia Lytvynova.

At the same time, global protectionism and trade wars may create additional challenges. The US has already begun introducing new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.

“If the US introduces additional tariffs, it could trigger a chain reaction in world trade, and rising prices will affect even Ukraine. Our enterprises should be ready to adapt to the new realities,” noted Maksym Urakin.

What does Ukrainian business need to do?

As for the main recommendations for exporters in 2025, the experts highlighted the following areas:

1. Markets need to be diversified by balancing exports to the EU with the simultaneous development of markets in the Middle East, Asia and Africa.

2. Develop processing by reducing exports of raw materials and expanding sales of products with high added value.

3. Increasing competitiveness through adapting production to the requirements of foreign markets.

4.  Preparing for changes in world trade by adapting strategy in response to possible tariffs and trade barriers.

“We must learn to play by the rules of global competition. If Ukrainian exporters are not ready for change, someone else will quickly take over the market,” summed up Yevhenia Lytvynova.

You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 from the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t

You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel via the link: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub

  EXPERTS CLUB, IMPORT, URAKIN, EXPORTERS CLUB, LYTVYNOVA, TRADE, ECONOMY, EXPORT