Main economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in 2025

The article presents the key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy as of early October 2025. The analysis is based on up-to-date data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at “Interfax-Ukraine”, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the “Experts Club” information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.

Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine

Ukraine went through the first nine months of 2025 in a “managed economy” mode, remaining adaptable to wartime constraints, but the pace of recovery stayed moderate and the investment impulse insufficient. In the NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025, the benchmark for real GDP growth in 2025 was 2.1%, which set the framework for the expectations of business and the financial sector for the second half of the year.

“Based on the results of January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy demonstrates the ability to sustain basic activity under wartime constraints. Recovery continues, but its pace remains moderate and relies largely on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on reconstruction and replacement rather than on expanding capacity. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.

Inflation dynamics in September looked more restrained than in the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% month on month in September 2025 and by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, while annual inflation (September 2025 versus September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis, at +1.3% month on month, and stood at 11.0% year on year.

Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at anchoring expectations: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its key policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s Inflation Report built in the logic of holding the 15.5% rate until the fourth quarter of 2025 as an element of the disinflation path and exchange rate stability.

“Inflation dynamics in 2025 are determined not only by monetary factors but also by supply-side factors – the harvest, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the key policy rate high serves to anchor inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.

Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risk. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025 exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period of 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance was $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import needs (energy resources, equipment, critical goods) and export capacity.

International reserves remained the offset to wartime risks and the trade imbalance. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves stood at $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to financing 5.1 months of future imports.

The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of this, external debt was UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt UAH 1,960.9 billion.

Global economy

The global economy in 2025 maintained a path of moderate growth, but at different speeds across regions and with heightened sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the IMF’s July update of the World Economic Outlook, global growth was estimated at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade front-loading effects.

The World Bank’s materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile because of growing trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline trajectory, after the slowdown, growth was expected to “pick up” to about 2.5% in 2026–2027.

“The global economy is growing moderately and unevenly across regions in 2025, and financial conditions and trade risks remain the key variables. The United States supports part of global demand, but its dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle persists. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. This means, for Ukraine, the need to bet on competitive niches and systemic support for higher value-added exports, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” noted Maksym Urakin.

According to the BEA’s third estimate, US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, whereas a decline had been recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited the decrease in imports (which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP) and the increase in consumer spending, partly offset by weaker dynamics in investment and exports.

According to Eurostat’s preliminary “flash estimate”, in the second quarter of 2025 GDP grew by 0.1% quarter on quarter in the euro area and by 0.2% quarter on quarter in the EU, which pointed to a very moderate recovery in economic activity.

According to preliminary estimates released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew by 5.3% year on year in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% year on year in the second quarter, meaning the economy kept a pace “above 5%” on an annual basis.

According to the government’s official press release (PIB), India’s real GDP grew by 7.8% year on year in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025–26 (April–June 2025), confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.

TurkStat reported that Türkiye’s GDP grew by 4.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2025, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing its sustainability.

“The main external risks of 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand the geography of sales, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the resilience of the balance of payments,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.

Conclusions

January–September 2025 was, for Ukraine, a period of relative macro-financial manageability: inflation slowed in September to 11.9% year on year, the NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and the high debt burden continue to shape medium-term risks, which are removed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes – investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher value added.

“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where it is economically justified, and the expansion of exports of products with higher value added. In parallel, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and to ensure transparent conditions for private capital. Without such steps, macro stability will remain mainly a function of external financing. With them, it can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more resilient economic structure,” Maksym Urakin summed up.

Head of the “Economic Monitoring” project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin

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