Preliminary results for 2025: the hryvnia retained relative stability amid growing external risks

For 2025 as a whole, Ukraine’s national currency – the hryvnia – generally maintained relative exchange rate stability, despite pressure from the war, high budget spending, and volatility in external markets.

During the year, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar showed moderate fluctuations within a set corridor, remaining under the control of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). Short-term surges in demand for foreign currency were observed on the cash and interbank markets, mainly in periods of peak budget payments and stronger import activity, but they were promptly smoothed out by the regulator’s currency interventions.

According to market participants, the key factors that supported the hryvnia in 2025 were the regular inflow of international financial assistance, the retention of administrative currency regulation measures, and the NBU’s policy of maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments. International reserves also played a significant role, remaining throughout the year at a level sufficient to cover short-term external obligations.

At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate continued to be pressured by the structural foreign trade deficit, the high level of military and social spending, and uncertainty linked to the duration of hostilities and the scale of future external support.