Ukraine’s real level of reserves exceeds the 2010 figure by only 14% — expert

Ukraine’s international reserves remain sufficient to smooth out currency fluctuations, but their resilience largely depends on external financing, export revenues, and the scale of the National Bank’s interventions. This was stated by Oleksii Fedinskyi, director of the Experts Club information and analytical center, on Ukrainian Radio.

As of August 1, 2026, Ukraine’s reserves amounted to about $51.2 billion. According to Experts Club calculations, that is roughly $1,300 per resident – 44th place among the 47 European countries and territories included in the study. For comparison, in Poland the figure is close to $8,000, and in Switzerland it exceeds $120,000 per person.

Fedinskyi stressed that reserves per resident are not an indicator of the population’s personal well-being and have no direct causal link with the cost of the consumer basket.

“This figure has no direct impact on the consumer basket. But it is important so that the economy and the financial system hold up and perform their functions for the state,” he said.

According to the expert, a direct comparison of Ukraine with Switzerland or the eurozone countries requires caution. Switzerland is an international financial center, whereas the euro exchange rate is determined by the economy of the entire European Union and does not need separate support from each national central bank.

Inflation adjustment also significantly changes the assessment of the current level of reserves. In 2010, Ukraine had nominally about $744 of reserves per resident. In July 2026 dollars, that is roughly $1,130. Consequently, the current figure of $1,300 exceeds the 2010 level by only about 14%, although in nominal terms the difference reaches 74%.

“In nominal terms the current figure is almost twice as high, but if you take dollar inflation into account, it roughly corresponds to the level of 2007–2010. At the same time, back then there was no need to keep the economy afloat during a full-scale war,” – Fedinskyi noted.

The expert also cautioned against the notion of reserves as a stock of cash physically stored in one place.

“There is a popular notion that gold and foreign currency reserves are a big room where gold and currency lie in stacks. In reality that is not so. Most of the reserves are highly liquid assets that can be quickly converted into currency for carrying out interventions,” – he explained.

As of July 31, assets in foreign currency accounted for 91.43% of the reserves. Securities accounted for 53.26% of the total, currency and deposits — – 38.18%. Monetary gold accounted for 7.02%, and IMF special drawing rights — – 1.54%. This structure allows the NBU to quickly obtain foreign-currency liquidity, but the value of individual assets may change depending on interest rates, exchange rates, and the price of gold.

Reserves are especially important because of the large foreign trade deficit. In January–July 2026, Ukraine imported goods worth $58.1 billion, while exports amounted to $24.1 billion. The trade gap reached about $34 billion. Under such conditions the NBU sells foreign currency to cover the market’s structural deficit and to limit sharp swings in the hryvnia.

If pressure on the currency market intensifies, the NBU first increases its interventions. The next stage may be a tightening of banks’ lending policy, and later businesses begin to build exchange-rate risks into the prices of goods and services. This is felt fastest in fuel, equipment, cars, medicines, and other goods with a high import component.

At the same time, the coverage ratio of 4.2 months of future imports does not mean that, without new external inflows, the reserves would mechanically disappear in four months.

“It cannot be said that if partners stop providing assistance, the reserves will disappear within four months. Export revenues and IMF programs will continue, restructuring and other solutions may be applied. A scenario in which the state simply draws money from the reserves and throws it onto the market is unlikely,” – Fedinskyi stated.

Speaking about personal finances, the expert advised Ukrainians first to calculate their monthly income and critically necessary expenses. The first level of a family reserve should cover about one month of expenses and be partly kept in cash in case of outages or problems with banking infrastructure. The next level is best built for three to six months, using accessible bank accounts and short-term deposits. For families with unstable incomes, children, chronic illnesses, or a risk of relocation, a reserve for six to twelve months is desirable.

“Everyone must understand that various situations can arise: illness, job loss, unexpected expenses. This does not depend directly on how large the state’s gold and foreign currency reserves are. First of all, a person should think about their own reserves,” – Fedinskyi summed up.

Earlier, economist and Experts Club founder Maksym Urakin, commenting on the level of Ukrainian reserves, stressed that their absolute size should not be taken as a guarantee of full currency security.

“Reserves at the level of $51.2 billion remain a significant currency buffer, but the absolute figure itself should not create an impression of complete protection. The resilience of the reserves depends on the regularity of international financing, the volume of NBU interventions, debt payments, and the economy’s ability to increase export revenues,” – Urakin noted.